All About Coin Flips in MTG

All About Coin Flips in MTG

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Flip a Coin, Win a Game

Commander and Coins

Author: Ben Guilfoyle

This article explores coin flips in Magic as a strange but fascinating corner of variance, chaos, and deckbuilding. It explains how coin flips work, which commanders support them, and how cards like Krark’s Thumb can turn randomness into a real strategy.

This article focuses on:

  1. Coins, dice, and variance.
    Coin flips are mathematically simple, but Magic treats them differently from dice rolls. The article uses variance to explain why coin flip cards can feel risky, exciting, or balanced depending on how good the “lose” outcome still is.
  2. Coin flip commanders.
    Most coin flip commanders are in Izzet, Rakdos, or Grixis colors. Zndrsplt and Okaun reward repeated flips, Yusri offers high-risk card draw and free spells, Ral turns spells into flip triggers, and Setzer or Edgar add more unusual build paths.
  3. Krark as the competitive core.
    Krark, the Thumbless, becomes powerful when paired with Sakashima, reducing the downside of failed flips and turning cheap spells into repeatable value. In cEDH, this creates complex but highly explosive spell-based combo lines.
  4. Old and modern coin flip cards.
    Early designs are often feast-or-famine, but cards like Frenetic Efreet, Squee’s Revenge, Planar Chaos, Boompile, Tavern Scoundrel, and Invert Polarity show how coin flips can range from chaos tools to real engines.
  5. Krark’s Thumb and odds manipulation.
    Krark’s Thumb dramatically improves your chances by letting you flip two coins and choose one result. With copies of the Thumb, the odds become increasingly favorable, turning a chaotic theme into something much more reliable.

Introduction

Statistics. It either excites or terrifies you. I love stats. Magic is full of statistics. Drawing a hand of cards, revealing the top card with Delver of Secrets, casting a spell with cascade, there is an element of chance with everything here.

Today I want to look at a specific example of variance.

Flipping coins.

Coins are used sparingly. It first appeared in Arabian Nights and as recently as Secrets of Strixhaven. Yet there are fewer than 100 coin flip cards. That includes Silver Border Sets!

There are great designs here. Whether you’re building a dedicated dice/coin deck or just looking for a little novelty, I hope you find something useful.

Coins vs. Dice

Before going deeper, I want to shout out dice. Magic has a lot of dice; the Dungeons and Dragons crossover is fantastic. From a mathematical standpoint, a coin is a two-sided die. But, Magic treats coins and dice differently. The coin mechanics in Magic are not impacted by die rolling mechanics, and vice versa. i.e., Wyll, Blade of Frontiers will not impact your Mana Crypt.

Secondly, when a card requires a coin flip, you don’t need to flip a physical coin. You can substitute the coin flip for other randomisation methods, as long as the outcome is the same as flipping a coin. For example, calling odds (tails) or evens (heads) on a six-sided die. Shuffling a deck of cards and picking black or red is the same idea. As long as the mathematics stays the same, and all players agree it’s ok.

If you want the entire breakdown of coin flips, check section 705 of the comprehensive rules.

Variance

Variance is a statistical term. It refers to how “spread out” values are relevant to the average.

Here’s an example:

You need to remove a Sheoldred, Whispering One from play. Let’s look at three cards: Murder, Doomblade, and Diabolic Edict. On average, they all kill something. But their variance is different.

  • Murder will fumble to surprises like hexproof or indestructible.
  • Doomblade has the same variance as Murder, while also missing one fifth of the colors.
  • Diabolic Edict gets around hexproof/indestructible. But the opponent chooses what is sacrificed. It misses that target.

Variance is a factor that balances cards. Murder costs three mana. Doomblade is two. You are paying for consistency.

Thanks for sticking with me. Context is key. Take this variance mindset, and think about coin flips. What are the outcomes? Win or lose. How does your game plan change based on the outcome? How can we mitigate it?

Coin Flip Commanders

Let’s begin with Commanders. Coin flips have only appeared in Grixis. Red is the most popular, followed by blue, with black in a distant last place. Green and white don’t have any coin flipping. But that doesn’t mean you can’t make a Gruul or Naya coin flip deck. Just a bit more challenging.

Izzet Flips

Red-blue has the most flip commanders by far.

Zndrsplt, Eye of Wisdom, and Okaun, Eye of Chaos, are the classic pair. They partner with each other. They both have “at the beginning of combat on your turn, flip a coin until you lose a flip”. Zndrsplt draws a card whenever you win. Okaun doubles his power whenever you win. These trigger for any coin flip you win. That means they benefit from each other.

Zndrsplt and Okaun have “partner with”. This makes them a great inclusion in other Izzet decks. When you play Zndrplt, you can search your deck for Okaun and vice versa.

Yusri, Fortune’s Flame is quick. When he attacks, you choose to flip between one and five coins. When you win, you draw a card. Lose, you take 2 damage. If you win five flips, your spells are free this turn. He does not care about other coin flips. Yusri is flexible. But, he might lack some of the larger synergy of other coin flip Commanders. A cute interaction, if you give Yusri Lifelink, it completely nullifies the damage he deals to you.

Breeches, the Blastmaker has some hoops. When you cast your second spell, you may sacrifice an artifact. If you do, flip a coin. Win, copy the spell. Lose, Breeches deals damage equal to the spell’s mana value. Dense. This card has a lot of words. Ultimately, you’re copying spells or dealing damage. The coin flip is always good. It’s just inconsistent. Sacrificing an artifact is a weird addition, but it is a fair cost when the coin flip is always positive. Breeches feels more supplementary rather than a dedicated deck.

Ral, Monsoon Mage is a classic Izzet spellslinger. Your spells cost one mana less. When you cast an instant or sorcery, flip a coin. Lose, he deals one damage to you. Win, transform him. Ral, Leyline Prodigy is a planeswalker. He can reduce the cost of spells or deal damage and draw cards. His final ability casts spells for free from the top of your library.

Ral gives consistent access to coin flips. Every instant and sorcery flips a coin. The downside is low. Notably, he does not do any coin flips on his planeswaker side. If you prefer Ral’s front face, good news. The transformation is optional. Ral functionally turns all your spells into coin flip spells for a low cost.

Rakdos Chaos

There are two black-red Commanders to look at. Rakdos, the Showstopper, flips a coin for each non-demon/devil/imp in play. For each tails result, destroy that creature. Rakdos is unique. He does not ask you to call the result. He specifically wants tails. This means it does not count as “winning” or “losing”. This impacts Okaun, Chance Encounter, and our second Rakdos commander.

Setzer, Wandering Gambler, makes two tapped treasure tokens whenever you win a coin flip. Coins are flipped whenever a vehicle you control deals combat damage to a player. Here, the coin flips serve to stifle mana generation. If this made one treasure every time, it would be a fine card. But the risk of two treasures for a coin flip is exciting. Unlike Rakdos, Setzer will trigger on any coin flip you win. So, you do not need to lean as hard into the vehicle theme if all you care about is coins.

Mono Blue Coins

Mono Blue has one Commander. Edgar, King of Figaro, draws a card for each artifact you control. He also guarantees a win the first time you flip one or more coins. This is incredibly powerful with effects that flip multiple coins at once, such as Yusri. Mono blue only has Zndrsplt and Edgar to flip goings. This makes Edgar better in the 99.

Edgar is strange as he specifically sets the coin to “heads” and “you win those flips”. So, if Rakdos, the Showstopper, enters, we will flip a coin for each creature in play. They will all become heads, and we are still counted as “winning” those flips. This will then trigger Zndrsplt because you are now winning.

Coin Flip in CEDH

This is the powerful coin flip build. Krark, the Thumbless, is a CEDH classic when paired with Sakashima of a Thousand Faces.

This is not a full deck tech, or statistical analysis. But here’s the summary. Krark flips a coin whenever you cast a spell. If you win, the spell is copied. If you lose the spell is returned to your hand. Sakashima clones a creature and ignores the legend rule. Copying Krark means every spell flips two coins.

Let’s say you cast Ponder. What are the options?

  1. Win + Win: Three ponders go on the stack. The original plus two copies
  2. Lose + Lose: Ponder is returned to your hand with no effect.
  3. Win + Lose: The spell is copied, and the spell is returned to your hand.
  4. Lose + Win: Same as above, with some differences to the stack order.

We have mitigated Krark’s downside. We now have three outcomes where our spell resolves, and one where it completely fizzles. Variance is reduced.

Returning a spell to hand is a big deal. With this setup, we can cast a spell and potentially return it to our hand to replay it later. With a Ponder, this is cute, but not game-breaking.

Consider something stronger. Submerge. This card is free if your opponent has a Forest, and you control an Island.

Consider the outcomes:

  1. Win + Win: We put three creatures on top of their owner’s deck
  2. Lose + Lose: Nothing is bounced
  3. Win + Lose: We bounce one creature, and return Submerge to hand.
  4. Lose + Win: We bounce one creature, and return Submerge to hand.

In outcomes three and four, we Submerge is back in our hand, meaning we can roll the dice again. We can bounce more and more creatures. Here, we turn “losing” the coin flip into a good thing!

If you make even more Krark copies, you further reduce the variance. This is where the maths gets silly. If any of this interests you, check out the CEDH primer by kenbaumann and Schpiro.

Krark in Bracket 4 and Below

Krark’s reputation comes from Sakashime. But Krark can partner with anyone. Functionally, you can play a whole range of two and three-color coin flip decks.

Leaning into the chaos of coin flips, Vial Smasher the Fierce turns spells into damage. If you don’t mind a less flippy color, pairing with Gilanra, Caller of Wirewood gives you a Mana Dork in the Command Zone that can accelerate you into more spells. You are sacrificing the consistency of Sakashima. But these are often under-explored pairings. Be creative.

For the remaining cards we discuss, I will be thinking about them in the context of Krark and Silas Renn, Seeker Adept. This gives us the widest selection of coin flipping cards!

Old School Coin Flips

Coin flips are feast or famine in the early days. The effects ranged from okay to unplayable, depending on the flip. I am not going to waste your time with Goblin Kites or Wild Wurm. Cards that “do nothing” are already bad in Commander. We are not going to pollute our decks with bad coin flip cards. The card needs to be playable even when you lose the flip.

Frenetic Efreet has aged very well. Three mana for a 2/1 flyer. For zero mana, you flip a coin. If you win, it phases out. Otherwise, the Efreet dies. By activating the ability, holding priority, then activating it again, and again, and again, we can flip infinite coins. Pair this with Okaun for infinite power, or Setzer for infinite tokens. Coin flip combos are possible with Frenetic Efreet.

Mogg Assassin is a strange political tool. It destroys target creature if you win a coin flip. Lose, the opponent chooses what dies. While it can backfire on you, there is room for some deflection if you can encourage the opponent to destroy something controlled by your shared opponents. Use this at your own risk.

Squee’s Revenge is divination with a coin flip. But, if you’re lucky, it could draw four, six, maybe 20 cards. This one might be worth it if you’re deep on the coin manipulation. Your odds get exponentially worse as you flip more coins.

Planar Chaos is a borderline stax effect. Whenever anyone plays a spell, they flip a coin. Lose, the spell is countered. It’s a nasty effect. Notably, Okaun and Zndrsply trigger whenever anyone wins a flip.

Mana Clash goes way back to The Dark. For one mana, you and an opponent flip a coin. Anyone who gets a tail takes one damage. Repeat this until both players get heads. This could go on forever. But in reality, there is a 1/4 chance of a double head. We expect the process to happen four times. Sometimes it might run 20 times. It could kill you before it kills your opponent. A tense minigame.

Banned in Commander, Mana Crypt is the best coin flip card in the game. It grew up beside these other cards. It’s a zero-cost artifact. Makes two mana when you tap it. The downside? On your upkeep, flip a coin. Lose, you take three damage. This is the polar opposite of many other flip cards. The effect is too good, the downside not harsh enough.

Modern Era Flips

Moving to the early 2000’s, coin flips start to become neutral. Odds // Ends is a split card. This is technically a Jeskai card. But the coin flipping is on the Izzet side. For two mana, you counter or copy a spell based on the flip. This feels like a very current design. The downside is minimal, especially when the card is already so flexible!

Frenetic Sliver is a warning. It looks like Frenetic Efreet. However, it is worded slightly differently to prevent our infinite coin-flipping machine. It says, “If this creature is in play, flip a coin”. Useless. If you want to be up to no good, then stay clear of Frenetic Sliver.

2010’s and Beyond

New decades, new designs. Return to Ravnica brought us Tavern Swindler. It’s not a good card. But it is the first black card in the timeline. It’s a sign that this strange mechanic is moving in new directions.

The following year, Ral Zarek would be printed. His ultimate ability flips five coins. Get an extra turn for each head. This was a riff on Stitch in Time from a couple of years prior. You would expect two or three extra turns from this effect. But I guarantee someone out there has used this ability and gotten no reward.

Boompile from 2016 was one of the first “good” coin flip cards I ever saw. It’s an unreliable time bomb. I had some great games where the coin flip decided a game. Drama, flair, and a bit of uncertainty can be worth it, even if it’s not the “optimal” play.

Tavern Scoundrel is a great role player. Whenever you win a flip, make two treasure tokens. The scoundrel can sacrifice a permanent to flip a coin. No additional effect. Just flip a coin. Scoundrel plays well with any of our flip Commanders. The mana advantage can be insurmountable.

Remember Odds // Ends? Now we have Invert Polarity. For three mana, you counter a spell or gain control of it. What a great place to be. Coin flip cards where the downside isn’t game over.

Ral Zarek, Guest Lecturer, is the latest in coin flip technology. A four-ability planeswalker. He surveils, discards, and reanimates small creatures. The -7 is a mirror of the original Ral Zarek. New Ral flips five coins and makes someone skip their next turn for each head.

Coin Flip Commanders

I have avoided it long enough. Krark’s Thumb tilts the odds in your favor. Flip two coins. Keep one result.

Let’s get the probability out of the way. A coin flip has an equal chance of heads or tails.

Flipping two coins has four possible outcomes:

  • Heads + Heads
  • Tails + Tails
  • Heads + Tails
  • Tails + Heads

You call heads. There are three scenarios resulting in heads. Three out of four, 75%.

An important note: If you get two heads with Krark’s Thumb in play, that still only counts as “winning” one coin flip.

Krark’s Thumb gives newfound flexibility to some cards. Mutalith Vortex Beast has two positive effects. It deals damage or draws a card. If you flip heads and tails, you can choose which result fits the situation. Rakdos, the Showstopper, can be used politically with the Thumb in play. Tactically save an ally’s creature to keep them on your side.

Other cards can be pushed to their limit. Squee’s Revenge is still not amazing. But the odds are much more appealing.

Successes No Thumb With Thumb
1 50.00% 75.00%
2 25.00% 56.25%
3 12.50% 42.19%
4 6.25% 31.64%
5 3.13% 23.73%
6 1.56% 17.80%
7 0.78% 13.35%
8 0.39% 10.01%
9 0.20% 7.51%
10 0.10% 5.63%

Two Thumbs Up

Krark’s Thumb is legendary. But that doesn’t mean we can’t find a way to increase our odds. Sakashima of a Thousand Faces is our friend. The legend rule doesn’t apply. Just to highlight the numbers at play.

What happens when we have multiple Thumbs?

With two thumbs, we flip four coins, choose one. Three thumbs, flip eight coins.

Number of Thumbs Number of Coins Flipped Win %
0 1 50.00%
1 2 75.00%
2 4 87.50%
3 8 93.75%
4 16 96.88%
5 32 98.44%
6 64 99.22%
7 128 99.61%
8 256 99.80%
9 512 99.90%
10 1024 99.95%

Having multiple triggers in play might seem unusual. But, this is where we return to Krark, the Thumbless. Having Krark, Sakashima (copying Krark), and a single Krark’s Thumb is a pretty reasonable scenario.

Let’s cast Seething Song. It costs three mana and makes five. Krark, Sakashima, and a thumb make it very hard to fail. At this point, you might need a calculator. Karkkulator is a great app for budding Krakr players!

Conclusion

Whether you’re a high roller or a chaos maker, coin flips have a strange place in Magic. I hope you give this theme some thought.

It’s a weird build-around that’s only getting better with time.

About the Author

Ben Guilfoyle started playing Magic in 2015. They love to research the design of Magic. Why was this card banned? Could this silver border card actually see play? Cards that push the limits of design is what excites them. You can usually find them playing cube. This ties into their second passion: numbers. With a background in physics and statistics, they love to get in the weeds when building decks. Crunching numbers is their specialty.

Ben Guilfoyle eating a croissant

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